NFL Conference Championship Round Picks, Props and Best Bets I Pete and Paddy
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Welcome to the Conference Championship Round Breakdown
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Pete : @Pete_Collins_
Pat: @Pat_Pitts
Soor: @SoorVora
Jut: @Jut_Stock
Saturday - January 20th
KC Chiefs vs Ravens 3pm ET
Ravens -4
Over/Under 44.5
Pete: Ravens -4
Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 against Lamar Jackson and is making his sixth start in a championship game, while Jackson is starting just his sixth playoff game. And yes, under Mahomes, the Chiefs are 8-0-1 ATS as road dogs in the playoffs, but I think that streak ends Sunday. The Chiefs offense looked hot scoring in 5 out 7 possessions (not counting kneel downs) last week including one fumble out of the back of the endzone. However, I predict, this high powered offense will not repeat itself against the #1 Ravens defense which led the NFL in takeaways (31) and sacks (60) during the regular season. The Chiefs are down Joe Thuney at G who is the highest graded pass blocker by PFF which should hurt Mahomes in this one. When the Chiefs trail they throw the ball ⅔ of the time. Becoming one dimensional is a death kiss verse Baltimore. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore has a great rushing attack, in fact, the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing, averaging 160.6 yards per game. The Chiefs rushing defense is not as strong as their pass defense; you have to think the game plan is for the Ravens and Jackson to run. I do believe how well Lamar Jackson performs as a passer will be the deciding factor however. His favorite target, Mark Andrews, is expected to return which bodes well for the Ravens. As always, look for my guy Zay Flowers to do work.
Favorite Prop: J. Hill over 7.5 rush attempts (-110)
Outside of week 18 has gone over 2 of his past 3 games
Played over 50% in 3 of past 4 games (including week 18 when they rest starters)
Played better than Gus they are leaning on Hill
Paddy: Chiefs +4
Pat thinks the game will be close and the spread in this one backs him up on that at +4. With that being said, taking the points here is the play for Pat. The Chiefs are the Chiefs and have been here before which should help them in this one. Pat Mahomes is improving year over year and is starting to become hard to bet against. Although Pat isn't super confident the Chiefs will win this one, he thinks it will be close so if the Ravens win by three, Pat wins with his Chiefs +4 pick.
Favorite Prop: Lamar anytime TD scorer (+105)
Lamar feels like a lock to score a rush TD
Scored 2 rush TD’s last week
5 rush TD’s in regular season
Soor: Ravens -4
Soor predicts the Ravens win Sunday and feels comfortable taking the moneyline. The Ravens have been the team that all year has been coast to coast dominant. It would take a perfect game from Patrick Mahomes to win this one. He goes on to say, Mahomes is not used to facing MVP Lamar WITH a #1 defense. In matchups past Mahomes has gotten the better of Jackson, but this year will not be the same. The Chiefs injuries are a factor here for Soor, Thuney and Pacheco are both banged up. Thuney being ruled out and Pacheco playing hurt. With the Chiefs inconsistencies at pass catcher Soor sees the Ravens winning a close one. The Chiefs games aren't blowouts and are typically close football games. He would be surprised to see the Chiefs win, but would be equally surprised to see the Ravens blow the Chiefs out.
Favorite Prop: Lamar over 64.5 rush yards (-130)
Josh Allen found the most success when he ran last week, Lamar is better
Chiefs looked to struggle against the run, not equipped to stop run
Read Option will hurt the Chiefs
Jut: Ravens -4
Jut, like myself, was leaning KC all week long. Jut gives KC the thumbs down in this one. He doesnt think last week's offensive showing from the Chiefs is what you can expect this week. The tipping point for his decision was when Mark Andrews was ruled active for this matchup. Jut feels Andrews will draw the defenses attention and free up some running lanes for Lamar. Look for Lamar to run all over this defense, says Jut.
Favorite Prop: Lamar over 64.5 rush yards (-130)
Lamar ran for 100 yds last week
Andrews opens up the lanes to run
Some other props we like:
Gus Edwards TD Scorer (+130)
13 regular season TD’s
Scored 3 of the past 5 games
Lamar Over 1.5 passing TD (+140)
Over 1.5 TD’s in 4 out of past 5 games
Detroit Lions vs SF 49’ers 6:30pm ET
49’s -7.5
Over/Under 51.5
Pete: Lions +7.5 (49er’s ML)
What a story here for the Lions, 44% of the money coming in on the Lions is coming in on the moneyline. Going back to last year, the Lions are 22-7 in their past 29 games. Of those 7 losses they lost by more than seven only three times. I prefer the spread over the moneyline. The Lions had three straight touchdown drives of 60-plus yards last week. There's no doubt the offense can pass and run. However the Lions pass defense is very bad allowing 340 pass yards or more the past 5 games. With that being said, look for Purdy to do well, look for the whole 49er’s offense to do well, especially with Deebo playing in this one. The Lions will rely on a turnover (or two) to win this one as they will not slow down this offense. Dan Campbell is the opposite of Shanahan; aggressive versus conservative, motivation verse gameplan. Purdys inexperience catches up to him this week, he has never been here before and Goff has.
Favorite Prop: Kittle over 60.5 rec yards (-125)
Lions pass defense is so bad, look for Purdy to connect with Kittle
Paddy: Lions +7.5
Motor City Kitties, first Lions conference championship in forever. The 7.5 line is disrespectful, he agrees they are underdogs but the line is just too high. The Lions games have been close all year, this one should be too. He cites the Cowboys game and last week's games as examples. They are fighters under Dan Campbell's leadership. Again, the line is disrespectful.
Favorite Prop: Goff over 259.5 passing yards (-105)
Goff will need to pass to win, Pat predicts a big day for him
Laporta back helps Goff out in this one
Soor: Lions +7.5
The 49er’s didn't exactly dominate the Packers last week and The Lions are a better team than the Packers in Soor’s opinion. Unless Detroit is overwhelmed by the occasion then he doesn't see them losing by more than a touchdown. Niners are 1-3 the last four times at this stage, 2-4 in the past six, of those six one of their two wins was by a large margin. The conference championship has not been kind to the 49er’s.
Favorite Prop: Parlay - Gibbs and CMC anytime TD (+150)
Gibbs is a big part of the offense
CMC feels like a lock mine as well increase the payout
Jut: 49er’s -7.5
Much to his chagrin, Jut believes the magical run comes to an end this week as he predicts the 49er’s to win by more than a touchdown and cover the 7.5 spread. Jut likes CMC to have a day and doesn't think the Lions defense can stop this high powered offense. Jut cites the home field advantage as a factor in the Niners win. The 49er’s have won five straight home playoff games since 2020. He even brings the stat of the show saying the 49er’s are 28-10 at home in the playoffs since 1957.
Favorite Prop: CMC anytime TD (-360)
He is a scoring machine: 21 regular season TD’s
Only 3 games without a TD all year (one game he got hurt midway)
Some other props we like:
Under 19.5 carries for CMC (-150)
Nine straight weeks under 20 carries
Comment with your picks and good luck! Bet responsibly!